As of January 2025, Maui’s real estate market is experiencing distinct trends in single-family homes and condominiums, influenced by current interest rates and rising inventories.

Single-Family Homes:

• Price Trends: The median sales price for single-family homes has increased by 14.5%, reaching $1,374,238. The average sales price surged by 30.3% to $1,901,134. 

• Inventory Levels: Inventory for single-family homes rose by 63.2%, with months of supply increasing to 6.2 months—a 67.6% jump from the previous year. 

• Market Dynamics: Despite higher inventory levels, the demand for single-family homes remains robust, contributing to rising prices. However, homes are spending more time on the market, averaging 129 days—a 34.4% increase compared to December 2023. 

Condominiums:

• Price Trends: The median condo price edged up by 1.2% to $860,000, while the average price dropped by 23.8% to $1,140,997, indicating variability in the market. 

• Inventory Levels: Condo inventory has surged by 105.3%, with months of supply reaching 12.3 months—a massive 151% increase. 

• Market Dynamics: The significant increase in condo inventory has led to a more buyer-friendly environment. Closed condo sales dropped by 43.6%, and pending sales were down by 24.4%, suggesting a cooling in demand. 

Interest Rates and Market Outlook:

The Federal Reserve’s December 2024 decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% brings the target range to 4.25% to 4.50%. While this cut provides some immediate relief, updated Fed projections indicate fewer and slower rate cuts through 2025 and beyond than previously expected. Current forecasts place the federal funds rate at 3.9% by the end of 2025, suggesting that mortgage rates will ease gradually rather than sharply. This steady improvement in affordability could unlock pent-up demand from buyers waiting on the sidelines. 

Prognosis for 2025:

• Single-Family Homes: Prices are expected to continue a modest growth of 2–4%, driven by limited inventory and Maui’s continued desirability as a destination. Luxury properties in areas like Wailea/Makena are likely to see sustained interest. 

• Condominiums: The substantial increase in inventory is anticipated to moderate price growth, potentially leading to price stabilization or slight declines. Buyers may find more negotiating power in this segment, especially as the market shifts toward a more balanced state. 

In summary, Maui’s real estate market in 2025 presents a mixed outlook: single-family homes are likely to experience modest price increases due to sustained demand and limited inventory, while the condominium market may see price stabilization or slight declines amid rising inventories and a more buyer-friendly environment.