Smith Team Real Estate Newsletter

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Issue 1161 | July 2nd, 2025

Aloha ,

In this newsletter:

Market Update Market Watch Homes
Over $1M Homes
Under $1M Vacation Condos
Over $1M Vacation Condos
Under $1M Residential Condos
Over $1M Residential Condos
Under $1M Vacant Land

The Crown Jewel of Lahaina

406382-18c62b1e-7333-49f0-a23b-529ff7a9b289

454 Wailau Pl
Lahaina

$11.500M (FS)

An iconic gated estate in Lahaina where refined architecture, rare craftsmanship, and natural beauty converge. Set on 52.775 acres across two TMKs, this 6,640 sq. ft. single-level residence offers commanding ocean views with the West Maui Mountains as your backdrop, providing ultimate privacy and serenity.

Listing Details

What Will It Take To Turn the Maui Real Estate Market Around?

Aloha!

As we close out the first half of 2025, there’s no sugarcoating it: the Maui real estate market, especially the condo sector, has been sluggish.

Inventory has grown, sales volume is down, and prices—particularly for vacation-rental condos—have corrected sharply from their 2021–2022 peaks.

In fact, if you look at real numbers (not just median statistics), many popular South Maui complexes like Kamaole Sands, Maui Vista, and others have seen price drops of 25% or more from their highs.

So what will it take to turn things around? Here’s what we’re watching:

1. Interest Rates Need to Drop
Many buyers who rely on financing are simply sidelined. Mortgage rates hovering between 6.5% and 7% are making monthly payments significantly higher than they were a couple of years ago.

A meaningful reduction in rates could unlock pent-up demand, especially from mainland buyers.

2. More Consumer Confidence
A large portion of Maui’s buyers are discretionary—second-home seekers, vacation rental investors, or retirees.

Stock market gains, positive economic news, or even just a return to a “feel-good” factor about the economy could help reignite buyer activity.

3. A Return of Buyer Perception of Value
For many buyers watching the market, this is the first time in years that they feel they have negotiating power.

But many are still waiting on the sidelines, hoping for better deals or further price drops.

We’re getting closer to a price floor in several segments—but buyers want to see proof that prices have stabilized before jumping in.

4. Less Inventory Pressure
Currently, in some parts of the market, there’s simply too much choice.

Unless we see fewer new listings or a pickup in sales, the oversupply will continue to weigh on prices and days on market.

5. Maui’s Long-Term Appeal Remains Strong
Despite the current slowdown, one thing hasn’t changed: Maui is still Maui.

The island’s beauty, lifestyle, and limited land supply mean that in the long run, demand for Maui real estate tends to come back.

We’ve seen downturns before (post-2008, post-COVID lockdowns), and in each case, the market eventually found its footing again and rebounded.

The Bottom Line:
Right now, we’re in a price discovery phase—buyers are waiting, sellers are adjusting, and the market is recalibrating.

For buyers: There’s opportunity here that hasn’t existed in years.
For sellers: Correct pricing and sharp marketing are more important now than ever.

We’re here, as always, to help you navigate the changing market.

Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just want a no-pressure conversation about where things stand in your neighborhood or condo complex—give us a call.

Mahalo Nui Loa,

Ken Smith R(S), Melissa Smith R(B), and Gregory P Smith R(B)

The Smith Team

P.S. 4th of July Activies on Maui.

Market Watch

	Active	Pending	Sold	Change
Homes	440 (388)	106 (78)	694 (516)	-1
Condos	879 (346)	78 (17)	712 (276)	-1
Land	201 (81)	18 (6)	154 (55)	6
Total	1520 (815)	202 (101)	1382 (847)	4

1. Numbers in parentheses reflect listings over $1M
2. Sold listings are for the previous 12 months
3. Change is the increase/decrease from the previous week

January 2025
February 2025
March 2025
April 2025
May 2025

Market Statistics

Updated list of all bank-owned and short-sale properties:

Bank-owned
Short sale

Homes Over $1M

405865-625e8965-6e67-430f-ac19-49ef3bf04de7

281 Pua Kalaunu Loop
Wailuku

$1.399M (FS)

Experience elevated island living at 281 Pua Kalaunu Loop, located in the desirable Anuhea at Kehalani community in Wailuku, Maui. This single level Nahenahe model offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and approximately 1,638 sq. ft. of interior living space, thoughtfully designed with comfort and functionality.