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Aloha
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In this newsletter:
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BREATHTAKING OCEANFRONT
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BUBBLE TROUBLE AHEAD?
One of the most searched terms in Google lately has been in regards to an impending collapse in the housing market, so we thought it would be a good idea to explore that subject today.
Personally, we know that it is never easy to buy at the bottom nor sell at the top. As we are sure you are well aware, the real estate market has been on a tear over the last 12 months with prices rising on average 17% to record levels across the country. Here on Maui, it is no different where the median price of a home is close to $1M.
Those pundits on the side of an impending collapse in the real estate market, cite the following reasons:
1. Prices have far outstripped incomes, so in most major metropolitan areas, the average person can no longer afford to buy a home in spite of historically low interest rates hovering around 3%.
2. It is now more attractive to rent vs. buy.
3. 10 to 15% of Sellers who sell are choosing to rent vs. buy. This will lead to a significant increase in inventory.
4. On average rents have gone up only by 1.1% while home prices have increased by 17%.
On the flip side of the coin, there are those who argue that the impending collapse in the real estate market is not going to happen anytime soon. The reasons they give are as follows:
1. For more than six years, there has been a shortage of homes to buy while we have added almost 10 million new households.
2. Things have changed since the early 2000’s when people moved on average every 4 years. Today, people stay in their homes for over 8 years. This has caused a scarcity of homes on the market which subsequently resulted in higher prices, i.e. higher demand and lower supply has pushed up prices.
3. In the past the difference has been made up by new home construction; however, in recent years, they have not built enough new homes to equalize this imbalance.
4. The last crash in real estate was caused by lenders extending credit to almost anyone who could pass the breath test. Today, things are different, as borrower must show proven ability to make their mortgage payments and also have decent credit.
5. Further to this point, in 2004 35% of loans were ARM’s. When these loans adjusted higher, many people could not afford the payments and were forced into foreclosure. Also, 13% of loans were to sub-prime borrowers with FICO scores at 620 or lower. In 2020, only 2% of loans were made in this category.
6. The Federal Reserve has printed over $6 Trillion dollars of a new money. Over time, this will lead to hard assets such as real estate being more desirable than holding cash, i.e. inflation will continue to exert upward pressure on housing prices.
7. From what we have been able to assess from examining both sides of this question, we do not see an impending collapse in real estate prices anytime soon. We do expect to see a moderation in price growth through the rest of 2021 and 2022. A precipitous drop in real estate prices will only happen if we see a lot of speculators bidding prices up with the hopes that prices will keep rising. That is not happening right now.
Please let us know how you feel. Are you looking to buy or sell in the next 6 months?
Mahalo Nui Loa,
Ken Smith R(S), Melissa Smith R(B), and Gregory P Smith R(B)
The Smith Team
Market Watch
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Active
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Pending
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Sold
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Change
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Homes
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205 (70)
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255 (78)
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1178 (450)
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+2 |
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Condos
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259 (70)
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417 (78)
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1657 (388)
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-13 |
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Land
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164 (71)
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91 (28)
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308 (56)
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-10 |
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Total
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628 (211)
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763 (181)
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3143 (894)
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-21 |
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1. The numbers in parentheses reflect the number of listings over $1M
2. Sold listings are for the previous 12 months.
3. Change is the increase or decrease in number of active listings from the previous week.
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Homes Over $1M
527 Kuikahi Dr
Wailuko
$1.088M (FS) |
Perched on the West Maui Mountains overlooking a large portion of the valley basin of Maui, the "Birdhouse" is the perfect forever home for you. Nestled in the trees like a nest this home invokes a feeling of comfort and relaxation.
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25 Paliuli Way
Kulamanu
$1.185M (FS) |
The property is located on the perimeter of the highly desired subdivision of The Ridge at Kulamanu and is facing the forest. ffering peace & privacy. The deers will be your neighbors while you’ll be only 20-25 minutes from Costco, the airport, the main city of Kahului or to gorgeous Maui white sandy beaches.
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2445 Piiholo Rd
Olinda
$1.290M (FS) |
Above the crowds. Perfect place to Isolate. Yet only 15 min to Makawao Town. 2.22 acres with 2 houses. bearing avocado tree,orange and lemon trees. Large fenced area for the animals.
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29 Kamaiki Circle
Wailuku
$1.35M (FS) |
Spacious living in this over 3000 sq. ft. fabulous well appointed home in "The Bluffs" gated subdivision in Maui Lani. The Lower level of the home has great entertaining areas, vaulted ceiling, large kitchen, with top of line appliances, and additional family room area and bonus room, The upstairs master bedroom is very large with own private balcony, roomy master bathroom with walk in closet.
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26 Huapala Place
Launiupoko
$3.4M (FS) |
Enjoy some of the best sunset views over the Hawaiian islands of Lana’i and Moloka’i as you sit on the over 1000 sf of covered lanai of this beautiful Launiupoko Estate. 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home that sits on a 1.4 acre lot with just under 4600 SF of living space. The kitchen amenities includes custom cabinets, a gas-powered range, double stack oven, walk-in pantry, and a new double door refrigerator. Situated at the end of a quiet cul de sac to guarantee peace and quiet from any road noise.
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Homes Under $1M
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186 L. Waiehu Beach Road
Wailuku
$579.9K (FS)
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Here is your chance to get an oceanfront Lot in Wailuku! Imagine building your dream home in Paradise...falling asleep to the gentle sounds of the ocean and waking up to beautiful views!
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81 Kealaloa Ave
Makawao
$650K (FS) |
Special Upcountry family home that is close to everything and just 20 minutes to the Kahului airport, this is the solidly built home that you will enjoy. From flooring, to ceiling, to interior walls, this mature home is full of redwood. The bleached redwood vaulted ceiling in the main room is impressive.redwood interior walls throughout.
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300 Kawailani Circle
Kihea
$759.9K (FS) |
Enjoy island living in Kihei, Maui. Just minutes away from the sandy beaches of South Maui. Walking distance from the grocery store and other restaurants. This home comes equipped with PV. An open floor plan allows for memorable entertaining opportunities. Ample natural light filters through the house and a fenced-in yard for added privacy and security.
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373 Ulumalu Rd
Haiku
$899K (FS) |
A timeless plantation home that represents the best of elegant mid-century modern design and peaceful island living. Boasting tropical abundance at every corner, this exceptional property is surrounded by distinguished eucalyptus, cuban red bananas, strawberry guavas and giant cashew trees.
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Wailea Ekahi 24B
Wailea
$1.275M (FS)
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Located a short 5-minute walk to one of the world’s best Keawakapu Beach, you will enjoy this spacious 1 bedroom, 2 bath ground floor unit that was completely remodeled in 2020. With no expense spared, the modern interior has brand new floors, paint throughout, added lights, new A/C unit, and much more.
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Montage at Kapalua 6102
Kapalua
$2.695M (FS)
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Montage Residences Kapalua Bay. A truly one-of-a-kind opportunity to own along the West Maui shoreline. This sought after Garden level Residence offers a private pool, hot tub, and garden area. This Residence features three bedrooms, three full bathrooms, one half bathroom and in-residence laundry.
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Wailea Beach Villas D301
Wailea
$10.25M (FS)
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You will be mesmerized by not only the stunning expansive ocean views, but also by the luxuriousness of this spacious nearly 3000 sq. ft. 3 bedroom 3.5 bath condo at the Wailea Beach Villas. Within just a couple of minutes' walk, you will find yourself at either the oceanfront pool or digging your toes into the soft white sand of the renowned Wailea Beach.
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Vacation Condos Under $1M
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Royal Kahana 602
Kahana
$350K (FS)
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Royal Kahana 602 is in the quiet zone on the North side of the building perched on the 6th floor. The premium 02 stack faces Northwest. Unit 602 is a large studio Suite with a smart floor plan, ocean views, year round sunset views and whale watching during whale season. Walk outside to full sliding doors from the Living Room to a sitting area on the lanai overlooking the the grounds and Pacific Ocean below.
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Kamaole Sands 8101
Kihei
$549K (FS)
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Gorgeous newly renovated 1 bedroom, 2 bath ground floor unit at Kamaole Sands located in South Kihei. This unit has an open kitchen and living room concept with laminate flooring throughout, updated kitchen with maple cabinets, tiled shower in the bathroom, washer/dryer in unit, and air conditioning.
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Kapalua Golf Villas 26T7
Kapalua
$790K (FS)
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Located within the majestic Kapalua resort, Offering golf course frontage featuring panoramic views of the blue Pacific ocean silhouetted by Kapalua's signature Cook Pine trees and nightly sunsets. Convenient ground floor entry welcomes you into a tastefully remodeled one bedroom, one and a half bath townhouse style floor plan.
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Residential Condos Over $1M
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Wailea Fairway Villas A103
Wailea
$1.195M (FS)
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3 bedroom 3 bath plus a den townhouse with the every aspect of a home. The sense of spaciousness is found at every moment, from the prominent entry with sweeping stairs, to double size master bedroom with a framed Pacific profusion showcasing the changing nature of the ocean and the glory of the Mount Haleakala.
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Masters 2205
Kaanapali
$1.345M (FS)
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This unit has been remodeled and shows beautifully with the high-end furnishings that are included. It has views of the beautiful Pacific Ocean and neighboring islands with the Kaanapali Resort at the beach's edge with shopping and two golf courses in between and within walking distance.
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Residential Condos Under $1M
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Puuone Hale Alii 205
Puuone
$169.9K (FS)
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This one bedroom, one bath unit is full of potential and is craving a makeover. This is a great opportunity for a buyer to put their personal stamp on a remodel and really make this a home. The unit is presently in need of major work.
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Villas at Kahana Ridge 512
Kahana
$589K (FS)
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Kahana Ridge 3 bed 2 bath updated from head to toe! Enjoy luxury plank flooring, fresh paint & baseboards throughout. New kitchen cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances complete the kitchen. Bathrooms have new vanities, countertops, and tile surrounds. This ground floor unit has ocean views and comes with 2 deeded stalls right next to this pet friendly unit.
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Mahana Estates Lot 4
Kapalua
$850K (FS)
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Welcome to Mahana Estates, Kapalua's new luxury development of 51 estate lots perfectly situated between the grand West Maui mountains, Kapalua's Plantation Course, which is home of the PGA Tour, and the famous Flemings Beach. This lot is on an acre of spacious property with panoramic views of Molokai year-round.
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